Disputes between India and Pakistan could escalate into an armed conflict in 2026, a US think tank has warned, citing heightened terrorist activity and sustained military posturing by both sides. The assessment is part of the ‘Conflicts to Watch in 2026’ report released by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), based on a survey of American foreign policy experts.
India-Pakistan Conflict Risk Rated ‘Moderate’
The CFR categorised the likelihood of renewed armed conflict between India and Pakistan as “moderate”, adding that such an escalation would also have a “moderate impact” on American interests.
“There is a moderate likelihood of a renewed armed conflict between India and Pakistan due to heightened terrorist activity,” the report said.
Background Of Recent Hostilities
The assessment comes months after India and Pakistan were involved in a four-day military confrontation in May, marked by drone and missile attacks and counter-attacks. The escalation followed India’s launch of Operation Sindoor to target terror infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir after Pakistan-sponsored terrorists killed 22 civilians in Pahalgam.
While Pakistan subsequently called for a ceasefire, the report noted continued provocative statements from its leadership. Although no major terror attack has been reported in Jammu and Kashmir since then, intelligence inputs indicated that over 30 Pakistani terrorists were active in the Jammu region this winter.
Defence Modernisation Continues Despite Ceasefire
Despite the ceasefire, both countries have accelerated defence acquisitions. India’s Defence Acquisition Council recently approved procurements worth Rs 79,000 crore, including drones, air-to-air missiles and guided bombs.
Pakistan, meanwhile, has reportedly initiated talks with Turkey and China to procure drones and air defence systems to address vulnerabilities identified during Operation Sindoor.
US Policy Context Under Trump Administration
Commenting on the broader geopolitical backdrop, the report noted, “The second Trump administration has sought to end many ongoing conflicts, such as those in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Gaza Strip, and Ukraine, as well as between India and Pakistan and Cambodia and Thailand.”
Afghanistan-Pakistan Also Flagged As Flashpoint
The CFR report also highlighted the risk of a separate conflict involving Pakistan, identifying a “moderate likelihood” of armed hostilities between Afghanistan and Pakistan in 2026, though with a “low impact” on American interests.
“There is a moderate likelihood of renewed armed conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan, triggered by resurgent cross-border militant attacks,” the report said.
Durand Line Tensions And Diplomatic Fallout
In October, violence flared along the 2,600-kilometre Durand Line, with Pakistani and Afghan forces exchanging fire at seven locations. Afghan authorities accused Pakistan of bombing Kabul, while Islamabad alleged that the Taliban regime was sheltering militants responsible for attacks inside Pakistan. Both sides claimed to have destroyed and seized border posts during one of the sharpest escalations in recent years.
Since then, diplomatic ties have deteriorated, with bilateral trade taking a severe hit, impacting Pakistan disproportionately. Afghanistan’s Taliban government has meanwhile sought to expand trade ties with countries including India, Iran and Turkey.
How the CFR Assesses Global Conflict Risks
The Conflicts to Watch in 2026 report is designed to guide US policymakers by identifying potential global flashpoints. Conflicts are grouped into three tiers based on the likelihood of escalation and their potential impact on American interests, with both factors graded as “high”, “moderate” or “low”.