The National Democratic Allaince (NDA) seems set to secure a historic win in Bihar with trends showing it is well on its way to secure a whopping 208 seats in the 243-seat assembly. The 2025 polls unfolded against the backdrop of a meticulously crafted campaign focused on stability, development, and inclusivity, where the NDA’s narrative of ‘double-engine government’ under Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar resonated powerfully with the voters. This election saw historic voter participation, with women and young voters emerging as vital pillars of support for the NDA, reflecting a sustained engagement with grassroots welfare schemes and effective mobilisation efforts.At the heart of this electoral juggernaut was not just robust governance but also impeccable political engineering — from flawless seat sharing among alliance partners to resurrecting deep-rooted fears about past lawlessness encapsulated in the widely known ‘Jungle Raj’ scare.
Election Results 2025
The alliance’s success was further amplified by broadening caste coalitions beyond traditional alignments, disrupting longstanding vote banks, and capitalising on the enduring Nitish Kumar factor, which brought JD(U) back to a dominant position within the coalition.
Flawless seat-sharing formula
The NDA’s decisive victory in Bihar in 2025 was strongly supported by a meticulously crafted seat-sharing formula, finalised well before the polls. The alliance comprised BJP, JD(U), LJP (Ram Vilas), HAM(S) and RLM. The BJP and JD(U) evenly contested 101 seats each, a historic power parity indicating maturity within the NDA. Smaller allies like the LJP (Ram Vilas) contested 29 seats, while HAM(S) settled for six seats despite initial demands for 15.
This seat sharing was achieved in a “cordial atmosphere” with all partners conceding to key demands to avoid intra-alliance friction, a frequent issue in multi-party coalitions.What differentiated the 2025 elections was the emphasis on quality seats rather than sheer numbers, ensuring that each party contested constituencies where they had strong grassroots presence and electoral appeal. This precision in allotment minimised vote-splitting and maximised coalition coherence. Leaders like Jitan Ram Manjhi openly declared unwavering support for PM Modi and the alliance, projecting unity. The arrangement allowed the NDA to mobilise resources and campaign effectively across the caste and regional spectrum.This flawless seat-sharing was a critical structural factor, removing the pitfalls of previous elections where seat disputes diluted NDA’s strength. In a hyper-competitive environment like Bihar, the seat sharing formula was a linchpin in translating vote shares into seat tallies, ensuring the NDA’s electoral machinery was uninterrupted and optimally functioning to deliver a record majority.
Resurrecting ‘Jungle Raj’ scare
In its campaign, the BJP-led NDA capitalised heavily on resurrecting the fear of ‘Jungle Raj’, a term associated with lawlessness during the Lalu-Rabri era (1990-2005). This narrative was revived through incidents like the attack on deputy CM Vijay Kumar Sinha’s convoy, which was framed as politically motivated intimidation by “goons” aligned with the opposition RJD. This law-and-order scare reminded voters of the chaotic and violent past under RJD’s regime, contrasting it with the NDA’s promise of stability and governance.Despite Bihar witnessing its most peaceful elections ever with zero repolls or violent incidents — a dramatic turnaround from previous decades — the Jungle Raj rhetoric struck a chord with many voters wary of instability. The NDA portrayed itself as the only viable safeguard against a return to ‘goon raj’, appealing to citizens’ desire for security and development.This fear narrative was strategically blended with reminders of the NDA’s development agenda, juxtaposing past lawlessness with the promise of infrastructural progress and industrial investment under PM Modi and Nitish Kumar. Consequently, this scare tactic mobilised a wide voter base, particularly those who had lived through or remembered the earlier turbulence, reinforcing voter preference for the NDA coalition.
Broadened caste coalition
One of the pivotal reasons for the NDA’s landslide was its expanded caste coalition that transcended previous rigid caste alignments. Historically, Bihar politics hinged on the Muslim-Yadav (MY) alliance, which benefited the RJD. However, in 2025, a new arithmetic emerged emphasising mahila (women) and EBC (Economically Backward Classes) groups, creating a ‘ME’ factor that substantially boosted NDA’s vote share.NDA consolidated the upper castes through BJP, while Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) secured a strong base among Kurmis and EBCs, which constitute about 36% of Bihar’s population. Additionally, the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), Rashtriya Lok Morcha, and Hindustani Awam Morcha augmented the NDA’s Dalit and backward caste appeal, creating a broad and diverse coalition that cut across traditional lines.This strategy diluted the RJD’s reliance on a narrow caste bloc by integrating multiple caste groups and regenerating old alliances with renewed welfare outreach targeting EBCs and Dalits. The coalition’s inclusivity paved the way for securing nearly 49% of the vote against the Mahagathbandhan’s 38%.
Massive women voter mobilisation & welfare outreach
Women played a decisive role in the NDA’s electoral sweep, with historic voter turnout gaps revealing women voted 10-20 percentage points higher than men in many districts such as Supaul, Kishanganj, and Madhubani. The Election Commission’s deployment of over 1.8 lakh Jeevika Didis — women volunteers guiding other women voters regarding booth locations and voting processes — significantly improved electoral participation among women and first-time young voters.NDA’s extensive welfare programs targeting women, including schemes for self-help groups, livelihood support, and social security, energised this vital demographic. The Nitish government’s efforts to empower women, coupled with BJP’s national outreach, resonated deeply with female voters who perceived the NDA as a champion of their aspirations and safety.This mobilisation was complemented by adding more than 14 lakh new young voters, many women, expanding NDA’s voter base. The enhanced women voter turnout created a crucial margin that decisively contributed to the NDA’s overwhelming victory.
Nitish factor & JD(U) resurgence
Nitish Kumar’s enduring appeal and the resurgence of JD(U) significantly influenced the NDA’s 2025 triumph. Despite concerns over his age and governance challenges, Nitish remains Bihar’s most trusted political figure, often perceived as synonymous with good governance and development. The slogan “Bihar Ka Matlab Nitish Kumar” and “Tiger abhi zinda hai” resonated widely, cementing his centrality in voter perception.JD(U)’s comeback was marked by its strategic equal seat-sharing with the BJP, signaling strengthened confidence and relevance in Bihar politics despite BJP’s growing national role within the NDA. Nitish’s governance record on infrastructure and welfare, combined with his image as a stable leader capable of balancing Bihar’s complex caste equations, reinforced voter trust.The synergy between Nitish’s JD(U) and BJP under the NDA created a unified front that could appeal to diverse electoral groups, blending Nitish’s Kurmi and EBC support with BJP’s upper caste and youth outreach. Go to Source